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Clinton

Will it be over today?

The big question on the mind of everyone who follows Democratic politics closely is whether or not today will be the day that Barack Obama secures the nomination. A second but close question is whether or not Hillary Clinton will concede the nomination.

As I'm typing this, MSNBC is reporting on TV that a new AP report hot off the wire says Hillary will acknowledge Obama has enough delegates in her speech tonight. It's not a huge surprise, but offers confirmation for some of the reports that have been floating around since yesterday.

I've hesitated writing about this because frankly, I'm not sure what to believe. If rumors were a commodity, the rumor mill would have made a fortune just since Friday. It started with rumors of mayhem at the Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting, followed by rumors of an appeal of the RBC rulings to the convention floor. Then we had all the rumors about who would endorse Obama, and when.

For political junkies, it's enough to cause serious cardiac stress. The good news, though, is that we should have some sort of closure if not in less than than 12 hours, then by this time tomorrow morning. As of the time of this post, Obama only needs 38 delegates to lock up the nomination, with more supposedly coming as time goes on today.

Now with MSNBC reporting that Clinton will concede, I'm almost ready to say it's time to break out the champagne. But not quite. Obama's probably only going to get 16-19 delegates tonight from the last two primaries, so in order for this to be over today, he needs at least 20 superdelegates. Personally, I'd like to see closer to 25 endorse him, but they're rolling out slowly so I'm not entirely encouraged.

And you never know... Hillary may have one last trick up her sleeve to derail this campaign once again.

As for me, I'm off to the dentist since I chipped a tooth this morning. Enjoy.

UPDATE: The Associated Press has officially called the nomination for Obama. While they're probably correct, they apparently flubbed the Hillary concession story earlier today, and nobody else is willing to call it this early in the day. In fact, most sites still show Obama needing upwards of 30 delegates, which he won't get by the primaries alone.

A little political humor for the morning

I found this one pretty amusing, so I thought I'd share it.

 

Who needs sleep?

I had no intention of being up this late, but I simply can't go to sleep yet without having something concrete in my hands over the Indiana primary. There's 95% of the vote counted, mostly a single county remaining, and less than 17,000 votes separating them.

But as many, many people in the media are saying, this primary is essentially over. Most people have known for at least a couple of months now that the math couldn't work for Hillary Clinton, and now the math is something that she absolutely has to avoid. Not even if Michigan and Florida are counted at the convention can she pull off the nomination without absolute nuclear war within the Democratic party.

That's not going to happen, though. There is a legacy left for her here, and she doesn't want that legacy to be causing the loss of the general election after the disaster of the Bush presidency.

The most important observation I can make tonight, though, really has nothing to do with the actual vote count and how it ends up come sunrise. The most important thing that has come out tonight is that the media has shifted again, and they're openly saying that Barack Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee, and Hillary Clinton is done, whether she knows it or not.

It may not be right, and it's definitely not the way it should work. But if that's the message being printed in the morning papers and the message that hits talk radio, the blogs, and every other news outlet in the nation, then no matter what Hillary Clinton says or does, this race is over.

I honestly didn't think it would happen so soon, but I'm glad it did.

Maybe there is a such thing as miracles

I'm in my hotel now watching the election returns and I'm quite literally stunned. For one, I did not expect a 14% win for Obama in North Carolina. 10% would have been about the top of my expectations, and at this point it looks like they're going to rack up a huge win down there.

As for Indiana, I'm holding my breath. I doubt Obama wins, but it doesn't really matter at this point because it's too close for Clinton to make up any ground. I simply didn't expect it to be this close, and apparently neither did any of the pundits.

The only big question I have is how much money does the Clinton campaign have? If what people are saying is true, then she's broke, again, and any continuation of her campaign is purely out of spite. I hope that's not why she chooses to continue her campaign. Then again, as I said earlier I hope this turns out to be the end of the primary contests so that we can get to work on the important stuff.

The rest of the results probably won't be known until after midnight, so I guess the real news will be made in the morning, when I hope to be moving my furniture into my new apartment.

At least I can watch MSNBC instead of FOX

Well, I'm in Chicago, sitting and waiting to board my next plane to Boston, which looks like it's going to be delayed an hour. This is actually only the second time in my life I've ever been in this airport. The first time was close to two decades ago when I was going to Japan for a high school trip, so I barely remember anything about this place.

At least the delay gives me a little more time to grab a bite to eat and maybe have a couple of drinks before having to board the next plane. Plus there's a couple of elections happening right now, and the bartender was nice enough to switch it to MSNBC instead of FOX. It was actually kind of amusing because when I asked the bartender if he could change channels the gentleman sitting a couple of seats down said "Yes, please!". Seems I'm not the only person here who can't stand that worthless network.

I do have to admit, I'm starting to get tired of the primary campaign. Usually I'm a politics junkie and am either reading about it, watching coverage of it, or listening to it on Sirius, but enough is enough. The primary campaign has gotten too ugly and gone on far too long for my tastes, and I'm ready to get the real campaign started.

I'm not going to get my hopes up, though. I fear that the Clinton campaign will do what they've done this entire primary season and move the goalposts even further back, no matter what the outcome is today.

Then again, strange things could happen and Obama could potentially squeak out a win in Indiana, which assuming he also wins North Carolina, means there's the tiniest of possibilities that Clinton won't want to cause any more damage to the party than she's already caused.

What I really want is for us to have a candidate, so that whoever the candidate is (hopefully Obama) we can start to differentiate ourselves from the Republicans on important issues like the environment, energy policy, and social justice. I just don't see how those issues are going to get any coverage until the primaries are over.

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